Keith Crain’s prevously-mentioned Automotive News column illustrates how dramatically expectations have changed about industry volume. In 2014 sales hit 16.5 million units. That was only good for ninth place in the record books.
Crain (2014) noted that in 2009 sales sank to 10 million units per year, which was low enough for panic to set in. As a point of comparison, Detroit never hit 10 million during what is commonly considered its golden years of 1950 to 1969.
The trajectory of General Motors is particularly revealing. During the 1950s, GM averaged 2.6 million in passenger-car production. That translated into roughly 46 percent of the market. By 1965 GM production soared to over 4.5 million, which captured almost 55 percent of the domestic market.
In 2014, GM’s light-vehicle sales topped 2.9 million, but that was only good for 17.8 percent of the market. In order to surpass 46 percent you’d have to add up sales from GM, Ford and Toyota.
Over the last 50 years the American automakers have contracted in the face of a market which has steadily grown despite large boom-and-bust swings. The Big Three went from controlling 73 percent of the market in 1995 to less than 47 percent in 2011 (Center for Automotive Research, 2011; p. 18, 28).
NOTES:
Sales and market share figures for 2014 calculated from Automotive News (2015). Production and market share figures from 1949-69 calculated from data in Wikipedia (2013).
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RE:SOURCES
- Automotive News; 2015. “The Scoreboard.” P. 3, 14; 38-39. Published Jan. 12. Subscription required.
- Center for Automotive Research; 2011. “Economic Impact of Hyundai in the United States.” Published, November. Ann Arbor, MI.
- Crain, Keith; 2014. “It’s as if the recession didn’t happen.” Automotive News. Posted Dec. 22; accessed Jan. 27. Subscription required.
- Wikipedia; 2013. “U.S. Automobile Production Figures.” Accessed July 5.
Is it correct to assume that higher sales were most recently been driven by low interest rates and cheap gas (relative to other parts of the world)? What is happening now? Interest rates are high, fuel is still not outrageously expensive in the U.S., but new car and truck prices are escalating to the point where it is has been significantly affecting EV sales. Time for an update, Steve.