I think it is important to acknowledge the death of automotive analyst Maryann Keller for two reasons. First, because she offered one of the most prescient perspectives on the U.S. auto industry’s decline. Second, because she was an all-too-rare woman who has gained stature within a predominantly male industry.
David Halberstam, in his book, The Reckoning, described Keller as a “virtuoso analyst, the kind of person whom the CIA, when it is lucky, places in charge of a vitally important country, someone whose estimates are a shrewd blending of a deep and powerful knowledge of the area and very adept daily reporting based on impeccable sources” (1986, p. 719).
Keller stood out as an analyst because she tended to be ahead of the pack in predicting the rise of the Japanese automakers, Chrysler’s slide toward bankruptcy in 1979, General Motors market share decline in second half of the 1980s, and the failure of a 1998 merger between Mercedes-Benz and Chrysler.
Although Keller’s writing style was very different from that of automotive journalist Brock Yates, her basic critique of U.S. automakers had similarities. For example, in discussing the proposed bailouts of GM and Chrysler in 2009, she decried the automakers for “utter incompetence of executive management and corrupt automotive corporate and union culture” (Keller, 2009). That aligned with Yates’ contention that domestic automakers suffered from an overly conformist management culture that was dangerously out of touch with a changing market place. He called that “Detroit Mind” (Yates, 1983).
The key to Keller’s prescience was dogged research
A big part of Keller’s success as an auto industry analyst for Wall Street investment firms was that she visited “dealerships, parts makers and factories — domestic and overseas — to get a firsthand look at key operations across the auto industry” (Phillips, 2022).
Keller had no knowledge about the auto industry when she was recruited by Kidder Peabody in 1970 to become a research analyst. “I didn’t know which car company made which nameplate,” she told Forbes magazine (Alicandri, 2022). She overcame that lack of knowledge with unusually dogged research.
Also see ‘Access journalism: Did it help fuel U.S. auto industry’s decline?’
“Back then, the Internet did not exist, so finding the details behind the automakers’ public financial reports was dependent on in-person conversations and interviews,” wrote Jeremy Alicandri (2022). Keller would “seek off-the-record insights from automaker employees, simply by cold calling them or buying them lunch.”
Her approach proved particularly valuable in gaining an understanding of Japanese automakers. “There were few if any journalists or auto executives who had contacts like hers in Japan,” Halberstam noted. “Because she had understood the Japanese surge so early, she was highly esteemed in Japan, where executives and journalists took her assessments extremely seriously, and where she had, for an American and woman, remarkable access” (1986, p. 719).
Keller’s writing emphasized analysis over hagiography
Keller’s predictions were often attacked but she eventually earned numerous accolades, such as being named the Institutional Investor’s Top Analyst for 12 years. She was also sought out for her views, such as by testifying before the U.S. in 1979 on whether Chrysler should be bailed out; she argued no (Alicandri, 2022). Nor did she back a bailout of GM and Chrysler in 2009 (Eisenstein, 2022).
Also see ‘Bigger didn’t prove to be better for General Motors in late-70s and 80s’
When both automakers faced bankruptcy, Keller (2009) wrote in Automotive News, “Much of the success of the Japanese auto companies in the United States came about as a result of Detroit’s failures. GM, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler made it easy for the competition by not matching them in quality, not renewing their product lineups on a timely basis, virtually ignoring the sedan buyer and diverting resources away from North America and even away from auto assembly” (Keller, 2009).
Keller’s critiques may not have been popular with automotive executives, but she also received pushback for not going far enough. As a case in point, Robert Farago (2009) called her scenario for a post-bankruptcy GM overly rosy.
Keller wrote two books. The first one was Rude Awakening; The Rise, Fall and Struggle to Recover at General Motors (1989). Her second book was Collision: GM, Toyota, and Volkswagen and the Race to Own the Twenty-first Century (1993).
Her writing was rich in factual details and didn’t succumb to the auto-executive hero worship so common among books by automotive journalists, such as Bryce Hoffman’s (2012) hagiography about Alan Mulally’s tenure at the Ford Motor Company.
Women still aren’t gaining many top roles
Despite being the first female auto industry analyst to cover publicly-traded Detroit automakers, Keller said that gender wasn’t a big factor in being a successful investment researcher. Good research was recognized as good research regardless of one’s gender. However, in the mid-80s she was rightly pessimistic that very many women would break into traditionally male bastions such as running banks (Alicandri, 2022). And in a 2020 interview, she noted that although more women are seeking executive roles in the auto industry, aside from GM CEO Mary Barra, few had reached the highest levels (Lutz, 2020).
Also see ‘Surveys find sexism still powerful in auto industry’
This is unfortunate because research suggests that female leaders tend to be better listeners and observers, noted Cheri Alexander, a University of Michigan School of Business professor and former GM executive (Lutz, 2020). That was certainly true of Keller.
Could it be that U.S. automakers might have more effectively responded to the rise of the imports if they had a higher proportion of women in management over the last half century? Indeed, might automotive history look very different if women of Keller’s caliber had headed U.S. automakers?
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RE:SOURCES
- Alicandri, Jeremy; 2022. “Heaven Welcomes Automotive Star, Maryann Keller.“ Forbes. Posted June 17.
- Eisenstein, Paul A.; 2022. “Obit: Vocal, Insightful Auto Analyst Maryann Keller Dead at 78.” The Detroit Bureau. Posted June 21.
- Farago, Robert; 2009. “Editorial: Between the Lines: MaryAnn Keller: Post C11 GM Needs A Road Warrior.” The Truth About Cars. Posted April 20.
- Halberstam, David; 1986. The Reckoning. William Morrow & Co., New York, NY.
- Hoffman, Bryce G.; 2012. American Icon: Alan Mulally and the Fight to Save Ford Motor Company. Crown Business, New York, NY.
- Keller, Maryann; 1986. Rude Awakening: The Rise Fall and Struggle for Recovery of General Motors. William Morrow & Co.
- ——; 1993. Collision: GM, Toyota, Volkswagen and the Race to Own the 21st Century. Currency Doubleday.
- ——; 2009. “With the right leader, GM can be reborn.” Automotive News (subscription required). Posted April 20.
- Lutz, Hannah; 2020. “Women set to take lead in emerging tech.” Automotive News (subscription required). Posted Nov. 8.
- Phillips, David; 2022. “Maryann Keller, formidable Wall Street analyst, pundit and frequent Detroit 3 critic, dead at 78.” Automotive News (subscription required). Posted June 21.
- Yates, Brock; 1983. The Decline and Fall of the American Automobile Industry. Empire Books, New York, NY.
ADVERTISING & BROCHURES
- oldcarbrochures.org: Chevrolet Citation (1980); Dodge (1955)
PHOTOGRAPHY:
- Banner photo: By Jalicandri (2013) via Wikipedia Creative Commons. Pictured is Keller delivering the keynote address at a NADA/JD Power Automotive Forum at the 2013 New York Auto Show.
I understand that the Dodge LaFemme (great name for a gay porn actor) was aimed at women, and with this bizarre ad I can see why Chrysler shot itself in the foot. The car is clearly empty, yet the doorman is opening the PASSENGERS side. Huh? Reminds me of around the same time Lionel decided to make a trainset for girls. It was a regular set where the engine and cars were pink. First, a girl who is not interested woujld remain uninterested no matter what color, and a girl who wanted a trainset would find this offensive and patronizing.
About that LaFemme ad, in which the doorman is opening the passenger side door, recall that many movies made in the 1940s and 50s show drivers entering the car from curbside and sliding across the bench seat. Easy enough with no floor shift, console, and seat belts to get in the way, and the tranmission hump was typically smaller than in later years when cars became much lower.
Ms. Keller will be missed. Her analyses were more often spot-on than not. What would have happened if Chrysler had been allowed to go bankrupt and liquidated in 1979-1981 ? What would have happened if General Motors had not been bailed out with a pre-packaged bankruptcy and government investment in 2009 ? From my perspective, General Motors is more a Chinese-centric company than an American-centric company. Maybe I am just bitter about what came out of the G.M. wreckage. At least Chrysler-Fiat is in better hands with Stellantis, in my opinion, even though it will be a decade before people realize it.