A while back I asked Indie Auto readers, “If you could have foreseen the future in high school, would today’s cars surprise you?” George Denzinger subsequently suggested in our “Story Ideas Bank” that we prognosticate about what American automobiles will be like 10-to-20 years from now. For simplicity’s sake, let’s use 2043 as our target year.
Denzinger wrote that this is a “very interesting interval in time; it may even be pivotal vis-à-vis the adoption (or some would say the enforcement) of battery-electric vehicles and the intersection of fossil-fueled powered vehicles.”
Agreed — and this can be a hotly controversial topic. Peter DeLorenzo (2023) may speak for many in the auto industry by insisting that the infrastructure needed for a “Grand Transition” to EVs is “easily six to ten years from being even remotely adequate.” But that only brings us to 2033 — so what about in another decade?
Here is where I think that DeLorenzo can be myopic. For one thing, he has yet to explain why we can’t make a rapid transition when a century ago the U.S. was able to shift from horses to cars in only a decade (Schlenoff, 2017). Just as importantly, DeLorenzo continues to not discuss government’s role in catalyzing change.
Hey, Peter, how do you make those deadlines go away?
Thus far nine states are have either banned or are planning to ban the sale of new combustion-engined cars by 2035. They include California, Washington, Oregon, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Rhode Island (Grieve, 2023). So too has the European Union (Butchholz, 2023).
Of course, governmental rules can vary in their strictness, such as whether hybrids are banned (Wikipedia, 2023). In addition, the rules may very well evolve in response to implementation difficulties and political backlashes.
One wild card could be the 2024 elections. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says he would roll back Biden-administration regulations aimed at accelerating the transition to EVs (Smyth and Williams, 2023). However, even if the Republicans won the presidency and both houses of Congress, it’s hard to see how the EV transition could be halted in light of the auto industry’s globally integrated structure.
The U.S. market might continue to see gas-powered vehicles dominate, but automakers would still have to respond to regulations in other major markets. And while it is possible that those markets could also see political backlashes, the opposite might just as easily happen.
Why? Because year by year climate change is getting more “real.” In 2022 the U.S. saw 18 weather and climate disasters with damages that topped $1 billion, according to the Fifth National Climate Assessment (2023).
In 2023 the earth had its hottest year on record, and scientists say that climate change is to blame (Wong, 2023). Between now and 2043 these trend lines are projected to get worse. That could spur public support for faster action.
The demographics of public opinion will shift
One other consideration is that by 2043 the demographics of the U.S. marketplace — and electorate — will have shifted. A recent Pew poll found that younger Americans (ages 18-29) display by far the most support for aggressive responses to climate change such as by phasing out fossil fuels in favor of renewable sources (Tyson, Funk and Kennedy, 2023).
Meanwhile, the age group that is currently least supportive of aggressive climate action — those 65 and above — will be 85+ in two decades. While medical breakthroughs are certainly possible, at this point the average life expectancy of an American female is only 79.3 years and for a male 73.5 (Rakshit et al., 2023).
That leads me to wonder whether the reader backlash in a recent Automotive News story about Dodge’s shift to EVs (go here) could look quaint in 2043.
That said, DeLorenzo (2023) may also be correct in arguing that “nobody knows anything” about what the future holds. We may see quite a few zigs and zags — some entirely unexpected — on the way to a transportation system that is no longer dependent on fossil fuels.
Share your reactions to this post with a comment below or a note to the editor.
RE:SOURCES
- Butchholtz, Katharina; 2023. “Combustion Going Bust: Global Phase-Outs Of Gasoline Cars.” Forbes. Posted Feb. 16.
- DeLorenzo, Peter; 2023. “Nobody Knows Anything.” Auto Extremist. Posted Nov. 27.
- Schlenoff, Daniel C.; 2017. “The Motor Vehicle, 1917.” Scientific American. Posted Jan. 1; accessed Feb. 24, 2021.
- Rakshit, Shameek et al.; 2023. “How does U.S. life expectancy compare to other countries?” Peterson-KFF Health Tracker. Posted Oct. 12.
- Smith, Jamie and Aime Williams; 2023. “Donald Trump would gut Joe Biden’s landmark IRA climate law if elected.” Financial Times. Posted Nov. 22.
- Tyson, Alec and Cary Funk and Brian Kennedy; 2023. “What the data says about Americans’ views of climate change.” Pew Research Center. Posted Aug. 9.
- Wikipedia; 2023. “Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles.” Page last edited Dec. 3.
- Wong, Carrisa; 2023. “Earth just had its hottest year on record — climate change is to blame.” Nature (subscription required). Posted Nov. 10.
I agree with Peter DeL. You believe that a few states trying to make a statement are immune from a backlash by the voters as the far off date becomes quite near and their freedom of choice finds severe limitation.
You also discount the extent to which the electrical grid infrastructure will need to be revamped to handle every household plugging in 2 or more cars at night. This does not even address what it takes to install charging stations at all the apartment complexes. Who pays for all of this? You expect the rate payers to be happy about the increase in rates this will all take?
The US may not be the only country where the public decides that a politically motivated mandate is not matching the market.
I removed the term “tree hugging” from your comment. There’s no need to call people names just because you disagree with them. The term also serves to marginalize a pretty large and diverse group whose perspective is backed by what comes as close to a consensus in the scientific community as you’re going to get.
Look at the locations with the fervor for legislating electric cars versus the far larger area of the country where this is not the case. You happen to be located in one of those fervent states which could be influencing your viewpoint. I, on the other hand, am in the area where this is not the case. Moreover I know dealers that have given up franchises because of the demanded investment to support electric cars. Same dealer is unhappy to get the electric cars that are mostly boat anchors on the sales lot.
Consider how Toyota is being very cautious in the degree of their commitment to electrification. One might consider this as an indication of a thoughtful approach that has hedged what the marketplace will do when using one’s own money.
I predict that Honda, Toyota and the Koreans will be around in 2043. G.M. might not, unless it is a Chinese company; Ford, Daimler-Stellantis-VW-Porsche-B.M.W. and maybe Tata will exist in some form or another (Who’ll own Jeep !?!). The problem will be how will we as a nation afford to maintain our aging infrastructure ? Think “Bladerunner”! I doubt that I shall be alive in 2043, at age 93. If I am still here on the planet, I expect I’ll be nodding off to sleep !
As little as I cared for Sergio Marchionne’s proclamations, he was correct about the consolidation of the industry. Sergio was right, there are only a few major corporations that produce the majority of vehicles in the world. Fewer first-world countries want these kinds of industries and have no problem shipping them off to second- and third-world countries. Just as long as the execs in the first-world countries get their golden parachutes.
Many have criticized VW-Audi Group (VAG) for having 10 brands. By that same logic, Stellantis has an even larger problem than VAG, with 14 brands. I have a hard time imagining that Stellantis will be able to manage all of them without some serious pain in the near future. Stellantis CEO Olivier Francois has given the US branches 10 years to justify (my term) their existence. I could imagine that the only US companies left standing will be Jeep and Ram.
This is my own speculation, but I believe that in the next 10-20 years there will only be one manufacturer in Japan, Toyota. They’ve done a fine job of either conquering or co-opting most of their domestic competition. I have no doubt that Renault-Nissan-Mitusubishi will self destruct. Renault-Nissan’s record is not great and Mitsubishi being the weak man of the three is no help in getting rid of the French. When it goes really bad, I believe the French government will force Renaut to get out of the alliance one way or another. Honda will hold out the longest.
I suspect that Hyundai/Kia (HK) will continue to try to co-opt Japan, Inc.’s former position as the world’s default supplier of vehicles. China, Inc., has it’s fingers in everyone’s pie worldwide and would be reluctant to lose that influence. They are also trying to become the default supplier of BEV vehicles, not ICEs. Current legislation in the West will only heighten the demand for their vehicles. However, as other players, like Tata in India or Vinfast in Vietnam may also play into this.
I think Ford and GM survive, but as smaller entities. As long as they can crank out pickup trucks for North America, they’ll live on. They’ve already shrunken globally, especially GM, but there’s more to shrink. GM’s market share in China is shrinking (along with VAG’s, Ford’s and others) as the Chinese emphasize their own native manufacturers. I thought GM was positioned well with joint venture (JV) agreements with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC). SAIC has quite a bit of influence, as it has agreements with GM, VAG and lists 10 brands. Where GM has shrunken in China, SAIC has grown. I expect this trend to continue, aided by the Chinese government. Ford may suffer a similar fate, as it’s position in China is even weaker.
The Chinese market is the toughest to figure out. There are so many brands, so many JVs and government regulations involved in their business that it’s not easily comprehended. Eventually, the CCP will declare winners (big Chinese brands) and losers (Western JV partners, weaker Chinese brands) to force a consolidation quickly that may have taken decades. Then, off to conquer the world.
Recently, I saw a video of an Iranian-assembled car (Iran Khodro) that looked like any other car produced in Europe, North America or Asia. We here in the US are quite used to seeing autos from India or the Middle East that are usually 30 years out-of-date. With Tata able to purchase Britain’s Jaguar and Land Rover (and remain competitive with their native product) and Peugeot’s assistance bringing the Khodro’s line up-to-date, anywhere could be the next manufacturing hot spot. If the economics work out, you could buy your next car from Iran… Or Finland… Or Turkey… Or Thailand… Or South Africa… Or…
It’s definitely going to be interesting. I hope I’m around to see some of it. I also hope I’m wrong about a lot of this. .
For Ram, I wouldn’t be surprised if it returns under Dodge’s umbrella and the same could be said about DS and Citroen.
The next question is how long Honda will hold? In 2020 some Japanese officials wanted a forced merger between Honda and Nissan. https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/future-cars/a33621998/japanese-officials-pushed-nissan-honda-merger/
https://www.thedrive.com/news/35795/japanese-officials-tried-to-push-for-a-nissan-honda-merger-that-neither-company-wanted-report Will these officials try again?
I suspect you are fundamentally right that there will be carnage. I can see GM surviving. Ford, on the other hand, leaps and lurches in bad management thatdo not bode well for them. Stellantis, luckily they got the French government to be part of the ownership – a government that will do anything to keep voters employed.
Toyota is the 800 lb gorilla of the industry. They aren’t going away anytime soon. The Koreans (actually one corporation with the 2 or 3 brands) have figured out how to be competitive and let Design do great work. Watch for the Chinese to decide when they want to be the worldwide player. That is when the weak companies start to look like the British in the 1970s.
I don’t see Ford surviving as anything other than a single variations on a product company like RAM or Jeep. None of their vehicles, none, appeal to me enough to even arse myself to visit Ford’s website to see how much they cost or how they can be optioned. I don’t believe I’m alone, either. That my local Ford dealer is a wretched hive of scum and villainy -may- be skewing my prognostication somewhat but I don’t think I’m mistaken. The only Ford that interests me is the 5th gen Mustang. Those will be attaining collector status soon as ‘that’s not a Mustang’ gets said more and more at the Ford dealer.
GM may decide to restructure so that you visit a GM dealer and ask to look at the Chevy, or the Buick, the Caddy or GMC Truck. Each division will make one vehicle, with multitudinous options no doubt restricted to upper tier models of that vehicle while unchanging colours and optionless economies of production will make the base model viable. Too bad Pontiac or Oldsmobile won’t be there to bridge the chasm between Chevy and Buick, but I’m sure Toyota-Hyundai will spread their nets to reel in those who fall.
Stellantis-Chrysler? Not a clue, but their dead horse legacy of the glory days of MOPAR will continue to be drummed for the foreseeable future. Maybe they’ll merge with Ford to save themselves from someone else. VW?
Jeep is the hot potato. Clearly it’s a cash cow, but notice now every company that owned it is squeezed out of the car business or merged out of existence. Also, how are Chinese cars doing in non north American markets?
When I proposed the idea about cars into the future, I was imagining the whole gamut of things that could happen. I see BEVs coming on strongly in the next few years, but I’m also hoping for another solution to keep our very large existing fleet on the road also. At this point in time, I can’t imagine that we (in the US) would completely ban the sale of ICE vehicles throughout the entire country. There are areas that electrification will never service well, IMO.
Henry Ford’s Model T could run on just about any fuel; gasoline, kerosene or ethanol. Over a century later and we cannot replicate that same feat with today’s technology. About 15 years ago there was a big push for biofuels in the US. Yes, I understand the arguments about using food for fuel. (By that same logic, we would never brew beer or distill whisky.) Porsche’s eFuel is heartening, using carbon dioxide to make a liquid fuel that would keep ICE vehicles on the road. I hope to see others take up this idea, but I don’t see it happening without governmental incentives and money. But, Nixon authorized the EPA, which then forced the oil companies and the automakers to produce and use unleaded fuel. There was much backlash at the time, but it’s no longer an issue.
How about autonomy? Will it manage to evolve to be all-weather capable and robust enough to become a regular feature on new cars like a sunroof? I think autonomous buses and taxis could be a better implementation of the technology. The rollout of autonomous taxis has been mixed, at best. It looks like there’s a lot more work to be done on that front.
I never would have believed today would have turned out the way it actually did, 40 years ago. Let’s see what the next 20 does for us. I don’t think it will be all bad.