A recent post on Ate Up With Motor’s Patreon page discusses the rise of the imports in the United States. Aaron Severson (2024) draws upon data he dug up from a report by the U.S. International Trade Commission. I found this and other reports to be fascinating so would like to share additional data that sheds more light on the import invasion.
Before proceeding I should note that the numbers in this story don’t always align with those I have previously used. That appears to be because of methodological differences, such as that data is for calendar years and does not includes trucks.
Let’s start by looking at the overall trend line of factory sales from 1964-80 (McElroy, 1981; Table 5). Imported passenger cars soared from only 5.4 percent of the U.S. market in 1965 to 15.7 percent in 1971 — and then reached 26.4 percent in 1980 (note that these figures do not include U.S. exports or imports from Canada).
If those percentage increases don’t sound impressive, let’s translate that into sales. In 1965 imports cracked 500,000 units but by 1971 had tripled to more than 1.5 million — and then surpassed 2.3 million in 1980.
Perhaps the most striking figure was that in 1980 import sales were slightly higher than the output of the Ford Motor Company and Chrysler Corporation combined. Granted, a severe recession resulted in the collective output of Ford and Chrysler falling by almost 39 percent. Nevertheless, it represented a devastating hit to the once-mighty domestic auto industry.
Import growth varied substantially by part of country
Detroit automakers may have been slower to respond to the rise in the imports partly because they were physically distant from the parts of the country that saw the most rapid growth — the coastal states. Note that the figures I will present below reflect new-car registrations, so national totals will not align exactly with above figures, which were drawn from factory sales data.
In 1964 there wasn’t that much variation in import penetration of the U.S. market by region, but over time it grew substantially (McElroy, 1981; Table 45). As a case in point, imports captured 10 percent of the passenger-car market in the Pacific states of California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska and Hawaii (McElroy, 1981; Table 50).
Also see ‘Car and Driver road test of 1966 Toyota Corona anticipates Japanese ascendancy’
The Pacific states were only 3 percent more than the Mountain states of Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and Utah in 1964 (McElroy, 1981; Table 50).
The region with the lowest import penetration in 1964 were the East North Central states of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin, whose market share was only 3.9 percent (McElroy, 1981; Table 47). Meanwhile, the Middle Atlantic states of New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania tended to closely align with the total national market share for imports, which was 6.1 percent in 1964 (McElroy, 1981; Table 46).
In 1971 import market share rose to 32.2 percent in the Pacific states, 20.8 percent in Mountain states, 14.6 percent in Middle Atlantic states and only 8.4 percent in East North Central states. The national total was 15.2 percent.
By 1980 the import market share rose to 51.4 percent in the Pacific states, 36.8 percent in Mountain states, 26.3 percent in Middle Atlantic states and 17.4 percent in East North Central states. The national total was 28.3 percent.
Brock Yates (1983) argued — quite rightly — that U.S. auto executives living in the East North Central states had little awareness of why people in other parts of the country were buying imported cars such as BMWs and Hondas instead of Buicks and Chryslers.
The import invasion was led by only two nations
U.S. consumers could buy imported cars from more than a half-dozen countries, but only two of them dominated the market from 1964-80 — first West Germany and then Japan.
The pivot point was 1974, when Japanese automakers outsold the Germans for the first time. Of course, that mainly reflected Toyota eclipsing Volkswagen. By 1980 Japanese sales soared to almost 1.9 million units, which represented 80 percent of total import sales (McElroy, 1981; Table 6).
Automakers from other countries became increasingly marginal players. For example, in the mid-60s British cars were in a distant second place behind those from West Germany, with annual sales peaking at almost 94,000 units in 1971.
Also see ‘Four-door subcompacts were not exotic in late-60s and early-70s’
Meanwhile, the high-water mark for Italian cars was in 1975, when more than 107,000 units were sold. French cars never had much of an impact in the U.S., with sales topping only 37,000 in 1980. Swedish cars did consistently better, with relatively steady sales in the 60,000-80,000 range during most of the 1970s.
Import sales were impacted by pricing changes
The most dramatic shift among imports was the collapse of Volkwagen in the second half of the 1970s. That may have been caused by a variety of factors, such as Japanese cars gaining a reputation for being more reliable. However, fluctuations in foreign exchange rates may have put pressure on VW to increase the prices of its imported models — and led to the U.S. production of the entry-level Rabbit beginning in 1978 (Gunnell, 2004).
The USITC report included a series of tables that show the lowest-priced models for imported and domestic brands. The lowest-priced VW in 1981 rose to $5,715 whereas Toyota’s was $4,748 (McElroy, 1981; Tables 38, 39 40). That was arguably a meaningful price advantage, particularly during a recession.
Ford’s entry-level prices illustrate how domestic automakers did not compete directly with the imports on price until the late-60s. After that point Ford fairly closely matched Toyota (McElroy, 1981; Table 38). This suggests that other considerations besides pricing played a key role in Toyota’s remarkable rise in popularity during the 1970s.
Volvo is included in the graph to show how an imported brand that started off as relatively low priced gravitated over time into the premium-priced class. By 1976 an entry-level model was priced at $6,295, which was more than twice as high as a bottom-end Toyota, which went for $2,789 (McElroy, 1981; Table 43).
NOTES:
Sales, market share and pricing data from the USITC were calculated from Ward’s Automotive yearbooks, Automotive News, the Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association. If you have difficulty accessing the report, the USITC’s document library is here. Specifications and production data from the auto editors of Consumer Guide (1993, 2006), Flammang (1992), Gunnell (2002) and Wikipedia (2013).
RE:SOURCES
- Auto editors of Consumer Guide; 1993, 2006. Encyclopedia of American Cars. Publications International, Lincolnwood, IL.
- Flammang, James M.; 1992. Standard Catalog of Imported Cars, 1946-1990. First Ed. Krause Publications, Iola, WI.
- Gunnell, John; 2002. Standard Catalog of American Cars, 1946-1975. Revised 4th Ed. Krause Publications, Iola, WI.
- —-; 2004. Standard Catalog of Volkswagen, 1946-2004. KP Books, Iola, WI.
- McElroy, James R.; 1981. “Automotive Trade Statistics 1964-80.” U.S. International Trade Commission. Series B Passenger Automobiles. No. 1023 published in December.
- Severson, Aaron; 2024. “U.S. Import Car Trends 1955–1970.” Ate Up With Motor Patreon page. Posted July 9 (subscription required).
- Wikipedia; 2013. “U.S. Automobile Production Figures.” Accessed July 5.
- Yates, Brock; 1983. The Decline and Fall of the American Automobile Industry. Empire Books, New York, NY.
ADVERTISING & BROCHURES
- autohistorypreservationsociety.org: Toyota Corolla (1970)
Baruth may have been right on numerous counts, but reading his book, I frequently felt like he imagined the whole of the United States to be the West Coast with its 50+% import market share – completely forgetting that just as there were states with foreign cars selling twice as well as the national average, there would naturally be ones with the import market share being half the national average, ones where the fullsize Chevrolet and Ford still were the automotive benchmark (although by then gradually getting superseded by the F-Series and C/K), and the Eldorado and Mark were the things to stride towards.
Also, in the perspective of the overall market, it becomes more understandable why Detroit treated imports as a niche for so long – Germany’s ~800k units in 1973 meant fewer cars than the 1973 production totals of any of GM’s medium priced brands, and it wouldn’t be until 1974 that the entire Japanese industry, from Toyota to Subaru and everything in between, would ship in more cars than Oldsmobile alone made.
A couple of points and a couple of observations:
First, most domestic automobile manufacturers stamping. foundries, parts and assembly plants governed by the United Auto Workers were EAST of Kansas City and Arlington, Texas, except for the California assembly plants (San Francisco area and Los Angeles area). In the 1960s and 1970s, there was tremendous top-down pressure at Ford and G.M. respectively to own and drive Ford and / or G.M. car. In 1973, after my brand-new 1973 Nova Custom was rear-ended and repair parts were scarce, State Farm paid for a new 1973 Plymouth Fury as a rental loaner for the two-months.
My father wanted to drive the Fury to his job as a senior project administrator at Allisons Gas Turbine Plant 8. As he was going to lunch, he was met at the front door by the Allisons’ head of personnel and his boss: They wanted to know why a senior G.M. executive was driving a MoPar product, especially since my father had purchased two 1973 G.M. cars (a Caprice and the Nova) with his G.M. employee discount. Once he explained what the problem was and that the Fury was an insurance loaner, everything was okay. For some reason, employees, blue-collar and white-collar, driving Volkswagens, MGs or small B.M.W.s (1600s and 2002s) (funny “furrin” cars) did NOT get the third-degree from their bosses or rabid U.A.W. members. The Midwest invasion of Toyotas, Datsuns and Hondas did not really begin until the summer of 1973 (1974-models), even though there was limited distribution of Toyotas and Datsuns in 1967.
Second, from 1973-on, the sales of Ford and Chevrolet truck variants soared in the Midwest. The Ford F-series and the Chevy C/K-series (and G.M.C.s) every year began notching up sales, and the Ford Ranger and Chevy S-10 / G.M.C. S-15 added by 1982-1983, truck sales were as important to new car dealerships as new car sales. Adding light-duty new truck sales to the sales data base would give a clearer picture of what was happening on the showroom floor.
Observation One: My fiancée bought a new fully equipped Toyota Corona coupe in late May of 1973 even though I tried to interest her in a new fully equipped 1973 Nova, Ventura, Apollo or Omega, purchased with my Dad’s G.M. employee’s discount. No dice ! She bought the Toyota from ex-Chevy dealer, Bud Gates, because she did not want to order and the green on green (vinyl roof) (black vinyl bucket-seat interior) automatic Corona was “cute” and fit her 4’11” petite frame perfectly. Within a year, once the snow started fall (which it did regularly in winters of 1973 through 1980), my late wife drove my repaired 1973 Nova Custom with studded radial snow tires. Both cars had radials and during the winter months studded rears (which were still legal then). Since both the Nova and the Corona were factory air-conditioned, my wife kept driving the Nova.
Of course, the Corona’s timing chain failed at 55-m.p.h. on the interstate downtown at 3:30 a.m. in the morning (radio’s prime-time) at 57,000-miles. I will say the Corona limped into the station parking lot with the engine smoking and two-months later the tow-truck returned the Corona to WIBC. The Indiana winters had already perforated the rocker, but I drove the Corona until a rush-hour traffic jam going back to the southside home in early 1979 brought me to a stop on I-65. Unfortunately, a woman driving a 1976 Buick Electra behind me did not see the stopped traffic and plowed into the back of the Corona at over 55-m.p.h., putting the rear bumper where the back seat began and totaling the car.
Unlike Ford Pintos, the gasoline tank did not leak, or I would have been barbequed. Personal inventory: Sore back, but no lasting injuries as I could see in the rear-view mirror that Ms. Buick was speeding into the Corona (She was uninjured, but her foot never touched the power brake pedal). That Corona, even with rotted-out rockers, was a safer car for a sub-compact unibody than I ever would have thought, as the front seat brackets held, the seat and shoulder harness kept me out of the steering wheel and in the seat. When my wife took me to the salvage yard to remove documents and retrieve what was left of the license plate, she burst out in tears, marveling how I escaped serious injury.
Observation Two: To the men and women who served in World War II, cars (actually, anything) from Japan carried a very negative stigma bordering on repulsion. The storied news director of WIBC-AM, Fred Heckman, a man who sang for President Franklin Roosevelt as a child and teenager at the D.C. First Congregational United Church of Christ, who fought in the Pacific theater in W.W.II after high school graduation and a man who had a heroic news reputation for honesty, integrity and tenacity, including standing up to racism as a journalist in the Deep South (Savannah), had one blind spot. Fred had an intense visceral reaction for anything Japanese.
When his lovely wife, without Fred’s knowledge, bought a fully equipped BRAND-NEW 1974 TOYOTA COROLLA. (Fred’s wife was of a fully liberated woman with grown children and accepted a great job at Indianapolis Methodist Hospital.) (I SHALL NOT DIRECTLY QUOTE FRED BUT WILL EDIT: Fred was known for his volatile temper (All good news directors share this trait !), but when he found out about his beloved bride’s new car purchase, everybody thought, including his close friends, Fred would suffer a massive stroke. While his closest friends ribbed Fred about the car, everyone at the radio stations, including the FM rocker staff in the back, NOT to mention the Toyota purchase. Fred’s wife would park the car in the garage, but even in the winter Fred would not park the car he was driving in that garage as long as she owned that car. If her car needed service, she had to take it, but he’d come into the station muttering, “*** CAR !”. He never drove the Toyota as long as she owned it.
One additional observation: When I was in junior high school, I went to the home of a close friend on his bus. When I was driven home by his mother, we took her 1963 Volvo 122S four-door sedan. Although the outside was smaller than a 1953-1954 Chevrolet or a 1952-1956 Ford, the Volvo was almost as big as the Fords or Chevys, other than it had bucket seats and a floor-mounted manual gearshift. The 122S was a little jewel: Top-quality materials, smooth and relatively quiet for 1.8-litre, four-speed manual. My friend’s father had a Volvo PV544. I had never seen or ridden in a Volvo before. No wonder the late, great Joint Chiefs General Colin Powell loved restoring 544s and 122s. Why American Motors did not investigate a car similar to an updated 122 is beyond me, as that would have provided a reverse-engineered Rambler American with outstanding durability !
James, I completely agree. AMC knew how bad their build quality could be, and a intense focus on designing in reliability, slowing the assembly line down, lowering NVH and requiring honest, competent service at the dealer may have saved them. The clues were right there with VW, their rep for service and their limited offerings and AMC missed them.